Chap 28: The Population Question
- Dr. Richard Price had recently stirred a sensation by his attempt to prove that England’s population:
- was declining, and
- had actually declined nearly 30% since the Revolution.
- The first to go against him was William Eden.
- Eden’s Fifth Letter to the Earl of Carlisle was published in 1780.
- It exposes the weakness of Price’s statistics.
- It argues that both England’s population and trade had increased.
- Price replied to these criticisms in the same year.
- In 1785, Eden contemplated:
- to return to the subject and
- to publish another work on it.
- He wrote to Smith about it.
- The two following letters on this population question of the 18th century were likely written to the Earl of Carlisle.
- Though neither of them bears any name or address.
- Eden’s Fifth Letter to the Earl of Carlisle was published in 1780.
- Price had drawn his alarmist conclusions from rough estimates based on the revenue returns.
- From a comparison of the hearth-money returns before the Revolution with the window and house tax returns of his own time, he guessed at the number of dwelling-houses in the country,.
- From the number of dwelling-houses he guessed at the number of inhabitants by simply supposing each house to contain five persons.
- He further tried to support his conclusion by:
- figures drawn from bills of mortality, and
- references to:
- colonial emigration,
- consolidation of farms,
- the growth of London, and
- the progress of luxury.
- From a comparison of the hearth-money returns before the Revolution with the window and house tax returns of his own time, he guessed at the number of dwelling-houses in the country,.
- Smith thought very poorly of those ill-founded speculations, even of their author generally.
- He called Eden’s attention to a population return relative to Scotland.
- It was a sounder basis for an estimate of the population than the statistics which Price relied on.
- This was a return of the number of examinable persons in every parish of Scotland
- It was obtained in 1755 by Dr. Alexander Webster, at the desire of Lord President Dundas, for the Government.
- Public catechisings were then, and in many parishes are still, part of the ordinary duties of the minister.
- The minister visited each hamlet and district of his parish successively for catechisings every year.
- Consequently, every minister kept a list of the examinable persons in his parish.
- These people were old enough to answer his questions on the Bible or Shorter Catechism.
- None were too old to be exempt.
- Webster procured copies of these lists for every parish in Scotland.
- When he added to each a certain proportion to represent the number of persons under examinable age, he knew fairly accurately the country’s population.
- He procured the lists for 1779 and 1755.
- He ascertained from a comparison of the two that Scotland’s population had remained virtually stationary during those 25 years.
- The increase in the commercial and manufacturing districts were counterbalanced by a reduction in the purely agricultural districts, due to the consolidation of farms.
- At least, that was the impression of the officials of the Ministers’ Widows’ Fund, through whom the correspondence on the subject with the ministers had been conducted.
- They doubted an observation of a contrary import.
- It implied that Scotland’s population was increasing
- They doubted an observation of a contrary import.
- Smith heard Webster make in one of those hours of merriment for which that popular and useful divine seems destined to be remembered when his public services are forgotten.
- He called Eden’s attention to a population return relative to Scotland.
Smith’s first letter:
Sir—
- It took me so long to answer your letter of the 8th inst. that I am afraid you think I have forgotten or neglected it.
- I hoped to send one of the accounts by the post after I received your letter.
- But some difficulties have occurred so you will have to wait a few days for it.
- In the meantime, I send you a note extracted from Mr. Webster’s book by his clerk.
- The clerk:
- helped him make it, and
- has made several corrections on it since.
- My letters as a Commissioner of the Customs are paid at the Custom House.
- My correspondents receive them duty free.
- I am enclosing them, as you direct, under Mr. Rose’s cover.
- I want to tell him that the net revenue from the customs in Scotland is at least four times greater than it was seven or eight years ago.
- It has been increasing rapidly these past four or five years.
- This year’s revenue has overleaped by at least half the revenue of the greatest former year.
- I think it will increase still further.
- The causes of this increase will take a longer discussion than this letter will admit.
- Price’s speculations cannot fail to sink into the neglect that they have always deserved.
- I have always considered him as:
- a factious citizen,
- a most superficial philosopher, and
- an unable calculator.
Your most faithful humble servant,
Custom House, Edinburgh, December 22, 1785.
I would be very glad if you would comment on my book.[339]
- The second letter followed in a few days:—
Edinburgh, January 3, 1786.
Sir—
The accounts of Scotland’s imports and exports which you wanted are sent by this day’s post to Mr. Rose.
- Since I wrote to you last I have:
- They both think that the conversation I had with Dr. Webster a few months before his death must have been the effect of:
- a momentary and sudden thought and
- not of any serious or deliberate consideration or inquiry.
- It was:
- at a very jolly table,
- in the midst of much mirth and jollity which he loved and promoted, among his many other useful and amiable qualities.
- They told me that:
- in the year 1779, a copy of the Doctor’s book was made out by his clerk for the use of my Lord North.
- at the end of that book, the Doctor had subjoined a note to the following purpose:
- That though between 1755 and 1779 the numbers in the great trading and manufacturing towns and villages were considerably increased:
- the Highlands and Islands were much depopulated, and
- even the low country, by the enlargement of farms, in some degree depopulated.
- He imagined that the population must be nearly the same at both periods.
- They both believe that this was the last deliberate judgment of Dr. Webster.
- The lists mentioned in the note are the lists of ‘examinable persons’
- They are persons of seven or eight years old and above, who are supposed fit to be publicly examined on religious and moral subjects.
- Most of our country clergy keep examination rolls of this kind.
- My Lord North will be happy to accommodate you with the use of this book.
- It is a great curiosity.
- Though the conversation I mentioned to you had shaken my faith in it a little.
- I am glad now to suppose, without much reason.
Your most obedient humble servant,
- The fourth edition of the Wealth of Nations appeared in 1786.
- It had no changes in the text from the previous one.
- But Smith added an advertisement acknowledging the very great obligations he had been under to Mr. Henry Hope, the banker at Amsterdam, for:
- the most distinct and liberal information on The Bank of Amsterdam.
- It is a very interesting and important subject.
- The printed accounts of it were ever satisfactory or even intelligible to me.
- Henry Hope is so well known in Europe.
- It so honorable to have information from him.
- That is why I have to acknowledge him in this new edition of my book.
- the most distinct and liberal information on The Bank of Amsterdam.
- Smith had now reached his grand climacteric.
- According to the old belief, his 63rd year was the last and most dangerous of the periodical crises for a man.
- The winter of 1786-87 laid him so low with a chronic obstruction of the bowels that Robertson wrote Gibbon they were in great danger of losing him.
- That was the winter Burns was in Edinburgh.
- This illness prevented him from meeting Burns.
- The winter of 1786-87 laid him so low with a chronic obstruction of the bowels that Robertson wrote Gibbon they were in great danger of losing him.
- Burns obtained a letter of introduction to Smith from their common friend Mrs. Dunlop.
- But he writes her on April 19 that when he called, he found Smith had gone to London the day before, having recovered.
- Smith left to consult John Hunter.
- However, he was still in Edinburgh in March.
- He wrote Bishop Douglas a letter introducing one of his Fifeshire neighbours, Robert Beatson.
- He was the author of the well-known and very useful Political Index.
- Beatson had been an officer of the Engineers.
- But he had:
- retired on half-pay in 1766 and
- become an agriculturist in his native county.
- But he had:
- While there, he compiled his unique and valuable work.
- He published it in 1786 and dedicated to Adam Smith.
- A new edition was called for within a year.
- Beatson proposed to add some new matter, and asked for Bishop Douglas’ advice:
- He wrote Bishop Douglas a letter introducing one of his Fifeshire neighbours, Robert Beatson.
- But he writes her on April 19 that when he called, he found Smith had gone to London the day before, having recovered.
Dear Sir—
- This letter will be delivered to you by Mr. Robert Beatson of Vicars Grange, in Fifeshire.
- He is a very worthy friend of mine.
- He is my neighbour in the country for more than 10 years.
- He has recently published a very useful book called a Political Index.
- It has been very successful.
- He now proposes to republish it with some additions.
- He wants your advice on:
- these additions, and
- every other part of his book.
- You are the fittest man to give him advice on this subject.
- I therefore:
- introduce him to you and
- recommend him to your best advice and assistance.
- You will find him a very good-natured, well-informed, inoffensive, and obliging companion.
- I was exceedingly vexed and not a little offended when I heard that you had passed through this town some time ago without:
- calling on me, or
- letting me know that you were in our neighbourhood.
- However, my very fierce anger is now a good deal abated.
- I can forgive the past if you promise to behave better in the future.
- This year, I am in my grand climacteric.
- My health has been worse.
- However, I am getting better and better everyday.
- With good pilotage, I can weather this dangerous promontory of human life.
- Afterwards, I hope to sail smoothly for the remainder of my days.—
Affectionately yours,
Edinburgh, March 6, 1787.[341]
FOOTNOTES:
[339] Original in possession of Mr. Alfred Morrison.
[340] Original in Edinburgh University Library.
[341] Egerton MSS., British Museum, 2181.
Words: 1,700