Over the past few years, I have been making predictions on the socio-economic outcomes in certain countries based on a combination of the Social Cycles model and Smith’s Profit Cycle model. Here is an updated list of the successes and failures of those predictions:
USA – 2008 & 2012 Obama will win the elections, 2016 Clinton will win (I can only measure popular votes as they are an objective measure of subjective sentiments. By contrast, the electoral college system is flawed and outdated)
France – 2017 Macron will win
Myanmar – Rohingya crisis will remain
Venezuela – The economic crisis will remain until a certain future year
Greece – The Greek debt crisis will continue
Syria – Assad will start losing ground to rebels by late 2016
Philippines – Roxas will win the elections. (In reality, Roxas had 23% and Duterte won with 39%. However, I defend this with Poe who had 21%, most of which could have naturally gone to Roxas)
Iran – the US will slowly lift more sanctions (In reality, Trump imposed new sanctions)
A Little Info On The Model
The core of the model is based on David Hume‘s maxim that mentality creates reality. The model proposes that human society is a metaphysical entity that is made up of individual metaphysical entities called human minds. This society has its own known dynamics which is explained by the ‘Social Cycle’ model and Adam Smith’s ‘Moral Sentiments’ model.
Each society’s mentality has its own cycles which clash or concur with those of others, creating the events in the news. By knowing the flow of each mentality, then the outcome of regular events or long-running events can be predicted, such as elections, conflicts, or economic recessions. This is a bit used nowadays in Game Theory. However, instead of creating selfish actors like in game theory, we use a specific range of actor ‘types’ with their own attributes and dynamics.
Historical events are used as ‘markers’ for plotting the flow of this mentality, which can be used as training data for Artificial Intelligence to better crunch all events together to form more accurate mentalities and therefore predictions.
I am able to make accurate predictions for the USA because there is a lot of consistent, historical data from its inception in 1776 up to today. However, I find it difficult to make predictions for (1) Middle Eastern countries like Syria and Iraq as they were bunched up together under the Ottoman Empire for many years, (2) countries whose histories are not in English, such as Vietnam and Thailand, and (3) countries that have so much historical information such as China and India.