Our profit cycle model predicts a global crisis before 2020, manifesting afterwards as global stagflation (assuming nothing changes), which will be preceded by more and more recessions as 2020 approaches. The recent recessions of Brazil, Japan, and Taiwan fulfill part of this prediction and so I’ve made a monthly updated list of countries in recession which we predict can only get longer.
Country – Recession Period – Cause
Greece – 2008 to present – Debt Crisis
Puerto Rico – $72b Debt Crisis Q2 2017, Hurricane
Zimbabwe – Economic crisis
Venezuela – Q4 2014 to present – Oil Prices
Brazil – Q2 2015 to present – China’s slowdown
South Africa – Recession Q2 2017 (Semi Recovered)
Nigeria – Recession 2016 (Semi recovered)
Russia – Q3 2014 to present – Oil Prices / Ukraine (Recovering*)
Japan – Q3 2015 to present – China’s slowdown (Recovered)
Taiwan – Q3 2015 to present – China’s slowdown (Recovered)
Nepal – Fuel Crisis Q4 2015 (Recovered)
*We regard the recovery as a temporary one, propped up by the recent aggressive economic policies of China and the US which mobilize capital in the hopes of a high future return. This mobilized capital will retreat once again to cause a crisis, after their investors realize the returns are less than expected.
June 7 update: Added Puerto Rico and South Africa
November 19 added IMF data link